Collapse: How societies choose to fail or succeed (24 Feb ‘08)

Although we at Politics and a Pint normally like to alternate between large global issues and local doings, we are shifting the schedule slightly so that we can listen to a presentation on “Collapse:How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed“, (Jared Diamond), a discussion of the end of the industrial age, as led by Alan Anderson. After the formal presentation we’ll chat about the concepts and ideas, then we’ll probably drift into some local issues as well. After all, Northfield seems to be engaged in its own form of “Collapse”.

How did it go? It was great. We learned some interesting facts, heard good ideas and waved the ol’ BS flags as needed.  The discussion fit well with the “Invisible Fist” discussion we had a few weeks ago. The free munchies were top-shelf and the company was engaged and invigorated. Our thanks go out to Ala, who did a very nice job of summarizing this difficult topic.

Alan has provided the following detailed overview … ambitious but very challenging and interesting.

Collapse

How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

By Jared Diamond

Author of Pulitzer Prize winning

Guns, Germs & Steel

 

We have the opportunity to learn from past societies that have succeeded, and from others that have collapsed. The question is, “Will we make the intelligent choice, and follow a path to long term, sustainable success?”

 

Collapse, in this book, means the drastic decrease in human population and/or the drastic decrease in political/economic/social complexity, over a large area, for a long period of time.

 

No society is immune from collapse, if damages its environment too badly.

 

The processes by which societies have undermined themselves, by damaging their environment, fall into eight categories:

1. Deforestation and habitat loss
2. Soil problems, including soil erosion, salinization and loss of fertility
3. Water management problems
4. Overhunting
5. Overfishing
6. Introduction of non-native species of plant and/or animals, which have a negative impact on native species
7. Overpopulating their land’s carrying capacity
8. Increasing per-capita impact

In studying past and current societies that have collapsed, there are five contributing factors that stand out as causing collapse. It may have been one of these, or any combination of them:

1. Environmental damage (those 8 points listed above and self-inflicted), usually due to ignorance or greed
2. Climate change (especially extreme droughts and increased cold, in the past)
3. Hostile neighbors – war
4. Interruption of trade with friendly trading partners, upon which a society has become over-dependent
5. The society’s inadequate response to environmental problems

Societies that have collapsed:

1. The Norse colony in Greenland, which lasted over 500 years, failed to adapt their lifestyle to the changing (getting colder) climate. They died out completely, while the Inuit population there continued to survive.

2. Easter Island, isolated in the Pacific, is a clear case of deforestation, which eventually led to war against the “elites” and collapse.

3. Pitcairn and Henderson Islands, settled by Polynesians, collapsed after environmental damage made them dependent on trade. When the trade ships stopped coming, their society collapsed.

4. The Anasazi of the SW US, overpopulated their land’s carrying capacity and damaged their environment. Then the climate changed (got very dry) and scarcity eventually led to war and emigration.

5. The Maya of the Yucatan, had a very large, very complex society, with written records. A combination of population growth, environmental damage, and climate change, led to war with neighbors, for resources.

Modern examples of collapse include:

6. Haiti, which completely deforested their part of the island they share with Dominican Republic, now has terrible soil erosion, flooding, decreased food production, overpopulation, and are completely dependent on imported food.

7. Rwanda, where overpopulation led to dispute over farm land, which finally boiled over in genocide and murder of like-tribe neighbors, for farm land.

8. Australia, China and others, are headed for environmental ruin, on their current trajectory.

The world, as a small island in the universe, is overpopulating and depleting its life sustaining resources at an unsustainable rate. Will we act wisely and cooperatively, or – in the tragedy of the commons – will we just keep struggling to “get ours”, to the detriment of all, and to the future?

Come and learn more at Policy and a Pint at the Contented Cow, Feb. 24.